Bitcoin Technical Market Analysis 15th August 2019
You always need to feel the support under your feet. This feeling helps you withstand difficult unpredictable situations and allows you to quickly navigate the situation and make the right decision, not the emotional one. Since 13 August, Bitcoin buyers have felt no support, seeing a systematic price lowering without corrections. However, today, almost testing the price mark of $9,400, sellers finally realize that there is another force in the market. At the 4-hour timeframe, we see a candle without a body and with a deep pin. It was accompanied by increased volumes:
Of course, it is wrong to say that this is a signal of the market reversal. But it is the first signal of a likely redistribution of forces. After a sharp fall, buyers are not rushing to change the situation dramatically. So, it is likely that the fall may continue, but not with such strength and speed, and gradually buyers will take the initiative.
Therefore, the test of the price mark $9,400, which we wrote about in our previous analysis, is still relevant. But equally relevant is the scenario for the correction of the current fall wave.
On the daily timeframe, we do not see any special anomalous candles and increased volumes. Everything looks quite passive and familiar, except the clearly visible pin on today’s candle:
The mood of Bitcoin buyers is very interesting. Looking at the chart of marginal positions of buyers, we see that positions are near the historical high. Although, during the price fall, Bitcoin buyers do not panic and now even try to increase their positions:
Sellers, on the contrary, having the initiative, instead of increasing their positions, close them:
According to the wave analysis, sellers practically managed to test the level of Fibonacci 61.8, after which the price jumped sharply upwards:
Assuming the optimistic scenario that sellers set their last local low, then buyers’ first target will be $10,560. And we will consider this movement as a correction rather than a new wave of growth:
Bitcoin sellers were able to lower the price by 18% this week without using special volumes and efforts. The price is moving too easy in such a wide range, and it is alarming because the likelihood of manipulation is very high. Let’s see how this “red” week will end.
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