Bitcoin Technical Market Analysis 16th August 2019
The sharp fall under the influence of Bitcoin sellers is over and buyers have time to breathe out and try to take the initiative on their own. The new local sellers’ attack, though looks harsh, did not have a continuation behind. An attempt to continue the fall is noticeable on the hourly timeframe:
Sellers were able to significantly lower the price within 2 hours, with the candles looking full and on increased volumes. However, the market did not support the initiative and now buyers are preparing to storm USD 10,650. This price mark is not a major problem for growth continuation, but volumes will be necessary to go through it. Notice how candles looked like in the blue range when Bitcoin sellers were rushing down:
In the blue 1.5% range, buyers were able to slow down the fall. So, let’s see how they cope with the first test.
On smaller timeframes (4h and 1h), volumes remain increased. Although, if we look at the daily chart, we do not notice any changes in volumes, starting from 19 July:
Marginal positions of buyers continue to remain near historic highs and in consolidation:
If sellers continue to fall, it can trigger a sharp closure of the fall, which will only help the price fall even faster. It is a serious threat.
The other side of the extreme relates to sellers. More than a week, sellers close their marginal positions and feel no dominance:
According to the wave analysis, buyers managed to correct the fall from 6 August by almost 38.2%. This was the first target we expected and mentioned in our previous analysis:
If buyers do not succeed in fixing themselves above USD 10,500-10,650, then sellers will have a new chance to test USD 9400 and think over of USD 7500-7600.
Otherwise? After fixing above the price mark USD 10,650, we do not see problems for buyers to test USD 11,600.
Our main scenario remains valid and in our opinion Bitcoin sellers still, own the situation. Let’s see how Bitcoin trading week closes and whether the market participants have prepared a surprise for the weekend?
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Peter, Khareem Sudlow
