Bitcoin Price Falling Below $7,700 Could Spell Disaster for Bulls
All hands on deck, the Bitcoin (BTC) price is approaching a key level.
On Sunday, the cryptocurrency market began to trend lower, with bulls failing to step in to facilitate a strong weekly close. While Bitcoin has remained relatively steady, it is currently trading decisively under the key $8,000 support level, changing hands for $7,850 on most exchanges.
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This move brings BTC to a mere two or three percentage points above $7,700. Here’s why this is important.
Bitcoin Now At Key Price Level
When Bitcoin precipitously fell off the $10,000 cliff when Bakkt launched on September 23rd, the bearish price action stopped at one level: $7,700.
This is for good reason. As industry investor and analyst Crypto Neko recently pointed out, $7,700 acts as local historical support — Bitcoin bottomed at that level during the run-up earlier this year.
$BTC Macro View
This is why the macro view is so important
– Local Support (LS) at 7700
– If we break I can easily see 6s as we fill the gap between supports
– What is concerning is the 6k region was not resistance going up, so can it truly be considered support? pic.twitter.com/ozGaIz06P5— NekoZ (@CryptoNekoZ) October 7, 2019
That’s not all. Per previous reports from NewsBTC, the one-week SuperTrend indicator’s baseline — a level which BTC never closed under during 2017’s bull run — sits at $7,800.
And, there exists a confluence of integral support levels around the high-$7,000s. These include but aren’t limited to the 200-day moving average; the 365-day exponential moving average, a level that Bitcoin bounced straight off of during mid-2017; the 50-week exponential moving average, among other levels that many say are indicative of Bitcoin’s medium-term trends.
Considering the historical and technical importance of $7,700 — or at least the confluence of moving averages and trend lines currently sitting at this price point — a strong move lower from here could mark the start of an even greater, drawn-out correction, one that analysts have proposed may last until Q1 of 2020.
Related Reading: Institutions Long on Bitcoin as Analysts Expect Upward Price Breakout
At the very least, analysts have said that the loss of $7,700 could lead to a rapid drop to the low-$6,000s — where it is believed that Bitcoin’s next key historical support level lies.
Can Bulls Save Crypto?
This may leave you wondering — can bulls save the cryptocurrency market from falling off an even steeper cliff?
According to a number of analysts, maybe not. Brave New Coin’s Josh Olsezwicz recently noted that Bitcoin is only 20% from the one-day Kijun line of the Ichimoku Cloud, which is still far away from the historical reversal point of 35% to 60% off the Kijun.
1D $BTC
price 20% off from the kijun here
35-60% off has been the historical reversal point
6.5k is 35% from kijun pic.twitter.com/cf1ThB4sZ9
— Josh Olszewicz (@CarpeNoctom) October 6, 2019
There are some promising signs, though.
According to a recent Commitments of Traders report shared by trader Romano, traders that identify as either “asset managers” or “institutions” are currently 69.31% long on the CME’s Bitcoin futures, and 30.69% short by the number of contracts open. With Romano claimed that institutions “have a good track record for the right directional trade”, it could be implied that this subset of BTC investors are expecting bulls in the cryptocurrency market to soon return.
Related Reading: Why a Bloomberg Opinion Writer Expects a Bitcoin Bull Run
So as always, financial markets are a game of odds. And right now, it seems that the odds are slightly favoring the bears.
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Nick Chong, Khareem Sudlow