New report analyzes Bitcoin’s breakout chances in Q4
The goal of the research is to provide the reader with a structured, data-first approach to discerning whether bitcoin volatility will increase in the fourth quarter of 2019, and if so, the probabilistic direction. The report was compiled by Christopher Brookins of Valiendero Digital Assets with support from Brave New Coin's market data team.
As part of his analysis, Brookins breaks down several key aspects and influencers on the bitcoin price - laying them out in multiple sections which build on one another to derive an overall narrative.
First, the report discusses the September 2019 “flash crash” and its likely drivers. Second, it explains the repeatable patterns in bitcoin’s price and volatility data, subject to seasonal characteristics. Third, Brookins applies a robust quantitative methodology that captures the likely price direction of bitcoin in Q4 via change point detection. Finally, the report turns to price prediction using the prior cyclical and quantitative analysis, coupled with an additional fundamental feature - and potential mitigants.
Brookins says the report’s robust quantitative framework lets the data speak for itself, devoid of opinions or biases – both in analyzing the recent flash crash and Q4 breakout direction. In doing so, he says “the data appears to suggest that bitcoin will have a Q4 breakout, and the direction is likely to be to the upside.”
Despite offering a range of positive price scenarios in the report, Brookins acknowledges several inherent market and modeling risks. Given such risks, he says any educational insights gleaned from the analysis and price scenarios contained within the report should be discounted for conservatism.
Download the report for free here
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News, Khareem Sudlow