Brave New Coin Weekly Bitcoin halving countdown update: 30th April
What is the Halving?
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that enables instant payments to anyone, with no central authority. The Bitcoin network is secured by miners which are specialized computers that use a consensus mechanism called “proof of work” to verify each block of bitcoin transactions.
The miner that verifies each block is rewarded for their work with newly-created bitcoins. This ‘block reward’ is how new bitcoins are released into the system. A new block of transactions is added to the Bitcoin blockchain approximately every 10 minutes. The current reward is 12.5 bitcoins per block.
An average of 144 blocks are mined every day which means approximately 1,800 new bitcoins are generated every 24 hours.
The number of new bitcoins that are created via the block reward is reduced by half every four years. This is known as the Bitcoin Halving. The next halving will be the third halving, and the current block reward of 12.5 bitcoins will reduce to 6.25 bitcoins.
This week in the halving countdown
With less than two weeks to go until the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving event, the hash rate has begun to steady. The blockchain hash rate is now ~31% higher than it was 6 weeks ago, but fell ~3% over the last week.
This week’s consolidated Bitcoin (BTC) block reward having prediction date is 12/05/2020 06:52. The consolidated date uses all 8 of Brave New Coin prediction models.
Block halving prediction times are based on average daily block times. As hash rate increases more blocks are produced each day, pushing forward this week’s predicted halving dates. Each of the Brave New Coin models is recalculated every day.
The consolidated prediction date from a week earlier was 11/05/2020 17:26. This predicted date is 13 hours and 26 minutes earlier than last week.
While the hash rate has decreased over the last week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) increased ~8%. This goes against the grain of an often assumed positive relationship between price and hash rate.
A higher price of Bitcoin generally leads to a higher hash rate as a higher price means the USD value per block reward earnt by miner’s rises. This in turn boosts mining profitability encouraging miners to make the most of market conditions.
This time around, miners may be choosing to consolidate mining resources for the halving, which is now 11/12 days away. Following the halving, block producers face a large decrease in profitability.
BTC earnt per block reward will drop from 12.5btc to 6.25btc. This will lead to a huge short term drop in mining profitability, unless the hash rate also drops to a similar degree.
With less than two weeks before the halving, miners may also be choosing to buy physical Bitcoin, and other cryptos, instead of choosing to deploy machinery to earn it through mining. Miners are notable users of large OTC desk services. Many may be choosing to save and accumulate at this time.
https://bravenewcoin.com/data-and-charts/bitcoin-halving
Halving prediction dates (average across the week)
Current-halving-prediction-model-dates (9)">Current-halving-prediction-model-dates (9)
Average predicted block halving date 19/04/2020 across the 8 different models= 12/05/2020 12:31
Average predicted block halving date the week before across the 8 different models= 11/05/2020 02:02
Difference= 13 hours and 34 minutes earlier
Date Convergence charts
Scenario 1: Average Daily Block Time
This is the average execution time of all Bitcoin blocks mined the day before. This model estimates the number of days left until the next halving, by multiplying the average daily block time by the number of blocks left to be mined before the next halving. Using this measure we calculate the timestamp for next halving.
Average predicted halving date (first observation 01/01/2019)= 12/05/2020 21:37 Predicted halving date 26/04/2020= 12/05/2020 21:31
Scenario 2: Cumulative Average Block Time
This is the cumulative numerical average of execution time of all Bitcoin blocks mined till the present day. In order to remove the long gap between the initial block execution, the average block time between those blocks is taken as 600 seconds. We estimate the number of days left until the next halving, by multiplying the cumulative average block time with the number of blocks left to be mined before the next halving. By using this measure we calculate the timestamp for next halving.
Average predicted halving date (first observation 01/01/2019)= 11/05/2020 12:19
Predicted halving date on 26/04/2020= 08/05/2020 14:53
Scenario 3: Simple Moving Average Block Time 50 day
This is an arithmetic moving average of all block times calculated by adding the average block time of blocks executed each day for the last 50 days of the period. This is a lagging technical indicator which applies an equal weight to all observations over the period for determining if the block time will continue to have the same trend or reverse it. If the simple moving average points up, this will explain the increase in the number of blocks executed which means the halving date will arrive faster than expected. If it is pointing down it means that the blocks executed will decrease on a daily basis and the halving date can move further away.
Average predicted halving date (first observation 01/01/2019)= 13/05/2020 17:24
Predicted halving date on 26/04/2020= 12/05/2020 17:24
Scenario 4: Exponential Moving Average block time 200 day
This is a type of moving average where a greater significance is given to the most recent average block times. This provides good signals on crossovers and divergences from the historical average block time. This is a lagging technical indicator. When the average block time crosses the moving average block time, the large changes are expected in the average block time, where the trend changes direction. As EMA provides higher weight to the recent daily average block time than on older data, it is more reactive to the latest block time changes.
Average predicted halving date (first observation 01/01/2019)= 15/05/2020 03:37
Predicted halving date on 01/03/2020= 12/05/2020 08:58
https://bravenewcoin.com/data-and-charts/bitcoin-halving
Network fundamentals
Average Daily Hashrate 26/04/2020-19/04/2020= 115,052,368,189
Average Daily Hashrate the week before= 111,639,975,189 Th/s
Percentage change= -2.97%
OhNoCrypto
via https://www.ohnocrypto.com
Aditya Das, Khareem Sudlow
