Top Fund’s Halving Analysis: Bitcoin Could Rise to $115,000 by Aug. 2021
Bitcoin is far from a full-blown bull market.
Every attempt at rally upward has been smacked down by bears. The latest of which was the rally to $9,800 on Monday, which was followed by an $800 rejection and millions in liquidations.
Yet a top cryptocurrency fund is still holding a bull bias. The company’s executives wrote in the report that they have a model suggesting Bitcoin could hit $100,000+ in 2021.
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Bitcoin Could Rally Over $100,000 In 2021: Pantera Capital
Pantera Capital released its June 2020 letter on June 24. In it, the company’s co-CIOs, Joey Krug and Dan Morehead, attempted to explain what may come next for BTC.
They mentioned that there’s a possibility Bitcoin eclipses $100,000 in the coming years due to the block reward halving:
“Based on the analysis, BTC could rise to $115,000 by August of next year if it follows a similar ratio to previous halvings… Today’s price of $9,661 is close to the pace forecast two months ago. The stock-to-flow estimate for today would be $10,948.”
This high prediction was derived from an analysis of Bitcoin’s halvings and how these events affect BTC:
“The second having decreased supply only one-third as much as the first. Very interestingly, it had exactly one-third the price impact. Extrapolating this relationship to 2020: The reduction in supply is only 40% as great as in 2016. If this relationship holds, that would imply about 40% as much price impulse — bitcoin would peak at $115,212 /BTC.”
More conservatively, the Pantera co-leads think Bitcoin may surmount $20,000 during the next nine months.
They cited the mass amounts of money printing by governments and central banks. Also mentioned was the sentiment that professional money managers will begin to siphon money into Bitcoin and crypto as other asset classes become unattractive.
Far From the Only Bull
Pantera Capital is far from the only notable investor to have discussed a world in which Bitcoin trades above $100,000.
Financial author Preston Pysh recently said that he thinks Bitcoin is going to rocket past $100,000 in this cycle. This bullish sentiment is due to macro factors like instabilities in the U.S. dollar’s hegemony and the monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve:
“And then, if it doesn’t meet its escape velocity, which is a whole other term, which is, in my opinion, completely dependent on all this other macro stuff that we’ve been talking about… then it’s going to come back to that $80,000 to $100,000 mark. And it will stay there until the next four year halving event.”
Related Reading: U.S. Congressman Davidson Says Bitcoin Is “Required to Defend Freedom”
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Nick Chong, Khareem Sudlow