How BTC Held On Exchanges Matches Bitcoin’s Deadliest Drop Yet
Several signs indicate that Bitcoin is potentially on the brink of a new bull market, and much higher prices are ahead. However, one seemingly bullish sign that investors are preparing for mark up, is actually at the same level as just prior to the collapse to the cryptocurrency’s bottom.
Are looks this deceiving, and Bitcoin is about to take a similar plunge once again? Or is this potentially bullish signal the first real indication that the bull run is here?
Investors Move BTC Off Of Crypto Exchanges At Hastening Rates
Although Bitcoin is valuable to different people for many different reasons, chiefly, the asset’s valuation is derived from its digital scarcity.
Valuation models like the stock-to-flow method look closely at the total BTC supply in relation to where it is in the asset’s market cycle and each block reward halving. This theory suggests that as the supply is reduced, demand rises, and so do prices.
In advance of this expectation, crypto investors, particularly whales, have been moving their BTC off of exchanges and into privately owned wallets either through cold storage or on the web.
Related Reading | “Intense” Bitcoin Whale Exchange Flow Could Be Behind Weekend Crash
The crypto community has been high fives all around since this first began starting on Black Thursday, believing its a sign that more and more investors are holding for the long haul.
But, this metric measuring how much BTC is held on exchanges is currently the same exact level that led to the November 2018 plummet to Bitcoin’s bear market bottom.
If moving BTC off exchanges is a sign of a bull run beginning, then why did this level in the past trigger such a selloff?
Total Supply Matches Bitcoin’s Worst Drop Yet: Why This Time Is Different
According to blockchain data from glassnode, reported by Arcane Research, the total sum of BTC held on exchanges totals 2.57 million Bitcoin.
And while this is indeed a decrease of 375,000 BTC since Black Thursday, the total number matches November 2018, just as Bitcoin fell to its bear market bottom of $3,200.
BTCUSD November 2018 Versus September 2020 Same Bitcoin Exchange Supply | Source: TradingView
Could Bitcoin be about to take a similar plunge, or is this time different? For one, the last time the crypto asset held on exchanges reached this total, it was on the way up as more and more investors moved the asset to exchanges to sell it.
This time around, the metric is coming back down, suggesting a pattern of holding behavior. Arcane Research notes that as many as 100,000 BTC has moved into the Ethereum protocol, which explains at least a quarter of the outflow.
Related Reading | Beware: Bitcoin Price Action Mimics Market Maker Model
While this very well does match up with a level that led to a histric collapse in the past, the fact the stastic is falling not climbing could indicate that investors are indeed expecting higher prices. And with less BTC sitting on exchanges ready to be sold, the fewer chances exist for weak hands to panic sell at the first sign of danger.
Featured image from DepositPhotos, Charts from TradingView and Arcane Research
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Tony Spilotro, @KhareemSudlow