Bitcoin Historical Volatility Fractal Points To Brewing Bullish Explosion
Bitcoin price has been trapped in a tightening trading range and has barely moved in weeks. The top cryptocurrency by market cap has been boring compared to its characteristically volatile self.
Looking back at the asset’s historic volatility, a fractal pattern could be forming that suggests the price per BTC is about to blast off to unprecedented heights.
Fractals And How History Doesn’t Rhyme But It Often Repeats
Mark Twain said that “history doesn’t repeat, but if often rhymes.” The statement best explains the theory behind repeating price patterns called fractals.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Ready For Display Of Strength, But Which Direction Will It Break
These fractals appear similar to another point in historic price action, and help analysts to predict and anticipate future market behavior. The results can be mixed, as rarely do things play out exactly the same. This fact has earned fractals a negative reputation, however, even in Bitcoin there is some specific behavior that can be expected.
Every cycle looks similar by comparison when zooming out | Source: BLX on TradingView.com
For example, each major breakout past all-time high resulted in a parabolic uptrend and the visual comparisons are undeniable. The most recent uptrend of which has come to a screeching halt, turning a stumble into a full-on 50% or more collapse.
While the market ponders if the bull trend is kaput, even technicals have become mixed. There is a handful of doji candles on the weekly, a tight trading range, and volatility has dropped to an important level. All of these signs point to a potential reaction, and if “history” has anything to do with it, the volatility should be released to the upside.
What Historical Volatility Says About The Bitcoin Bull Run Finale
All throughout nature there are fractal-like patterns that repeat again and again. Price action in financial assets commonly exhibit such repeating behavior, such as cycling between bear and bull markets.
Bitcoin is no different, and is known for patterns that appear again and again. Looking back at the Historical Volatility indicator on weekly timeframes, we may have one of those instances brewing.
Mid-cycle consolidation then kicks volatility into high gear | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
During the previous bull market, which is clear the current cycle isn’t quite following in terms of “only up” price action, after one of the largest shakeouts, volatility finally held above a key level and kickstarted the last leg of the bull market.
Anyone who had assumed it was the peak of the cycle, would have been left in the dust as Bitcoin churned out another 900%+ of bull market ROI and volatility went parabolic.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Trend Strength Indicator Suggests Bull Run Isn’t Yet Over
Bitcoin is back and trying to hold above a very similar support line, and if successful, should send volatility back along a parabolic curve along with price action. That would put the top of the current bull cycle at around December, which – historically – has marked a significant top or bottom every year since 2017.
Still think history doesn’t rhyme?
Follow @TonySpilotro on Twitter or via the TonyTrades Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony Spilotro, @KhareemSudlow